Tuesday 12 July 2011

Review

It's been 43 days since we started posting the account trades so a monthly review is slightly overdue.

The good news is that we're obviously in profit; the bad news is that we've had some ups and downs along the way. I much prefer getting the negatives out of the way first and to be fair there aren't many of them:
1. Saver bets - using the correct score saver bets cost us just under 2 PTS and we didn't need them once. After a couple of initial trades didn't go to plan we felt we needed an extra cushion, but in reality we didn't.
2. Timing - we are sometimes late in sending out the trades and for anyone that follows them rigorously we understand that can be a bit annoying. We will aim to get all trades out before 11am from now on.
3. Liquidity - some of the markets we work in either have low liquidity, odds gaps or both and when trying to get your bets matched after a goal this can obviously be a problem. What we do ourselves a lot of the time is remove the potential loss from the trade. So, for example, for the under 1.5 goals trade if there is a goal in the 1st half we remove the potential loss (effectively meaning that there will neither be a profit or loss if the game finishes 1-0/0-1) on there being under 1.5 goals and maximise profits if there is more than one goal.

Hopefully once the big leagues start up liquidity won't be a problem.

Onto the positives:
1. By compounding profits this has resulted in a slightly better overall profit than using level stakes. Our advice was to compound profits; however, we have given results as if every trade is to 2.5 PTS liability. At 2.5 PTS liability profit would stand at 8.99 PTS, at 2.5% liability of bank profit stands at 9.17 PTS. It's only 0.18 PTS difference now, but over the course of 6 months the difference could become much larger.
2. Although we have a shortlist of many types of trades we are very selective about when we use them and on what leagues. The Shortlist trades didn't follow such strict rules and their performance was quite poor, eventually leading us to the decision to remove them.
3. Profits are coming from different areas, not just one golden trade.

Here is the link to the latest spreadsheet:
https://docs.google.com/leaf?id=0BwXsHOipLtGWY2Q1MzE4NmQtMzRjMC00NDIwLTk4YWEtNWVmOGMzNDA3NWY0&hl=en_US

It's been a good first 42 days and the initial 4 PTS loss certainly was a wake-up call that all wouldn't be as rosy as we'd hoped. But we've shown that we're more than up to the task and with a little luck we can pass our next milestone which is the 2 digit profit mark. Trading on the big leagues won't start till September so we've got plenty of time to get some research in and make sure our trades are up to scratch. As I've mentioned many a time it's all about the value and there will be losing periods, so when they do kick in stick with us, there's always sunshine on the other side.

Thanks for the support.

koda & Jasper

2 comments:

  1. coming along nicey

    and if you pro rata your current rate 100pts in a 12 month period is achievable , good luck on your venturue

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  2. Hello Anonymous,

    Feet on the ground and one step at a time. 100 PTS would be a real achievement, but our target for the first year's trading is 60 PTS which I'm sure followers would be more than happy with. Anything extra would be a bonus, anything less would be a slight underachievement.

    We're doing well at the moment which is the most important thing.

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