Saturday 26 February 2011

All it takes is one day...

I'm going to be as positive as I can about today, but it's going to be rather difficult...


Tipster: P/L Today: Stakes: ROI: Net Profit
4PA -1.88 3.00 -63% 106.12
BLB -1.09 10.00 -11% -4.25
BLIP -3.22 4.72 -68% 5.65
CL 0.00 0.00 N/A 36.41
CNB 1.70 2.00 85% 0.23
EI -1.00 1.00 -100% 50.72
FB 0.25 9.00 3% 10.92
FE 0.00 0.00 N/A 26.97
FI -2.94 13.00 -23% 22.54
GVE 1.10 1.00 110% 6.19
LB -1.00 1.00 -100% 2.02
MGB -1.94 6.00 -32% 17.40
NB -1.00 1.00 -100% -23.65
NMP -2.25 2.25 -100% -4.98
PB -1.25 1.25 -100% 15.65
SK -8.56 16.00 -54% 41.03
SKS 1.95 3.00 65% -1.09
STR -16.00 16.00 -100% 60.00
TRAM 0.00 0.00 N/A -16.57
TRAS 0.00 0.00 N/A -1.61
WRT 0.00 0.00 N/A 7.01
AB 1.70 1.00 170% -1.17
MB -1.00 1.00 -100% -2.90
22L -1.98 6.00 -33% -2.52
         
Active total: -32.23 80.50 -28.97% 350.10
All-time total:   6909.59 4.29% 220.44

There weren't any specific culprits for the mega financial loss I suffered today, there were just no standout performers. The last couple of months have been very difficult. Northern Monkey Punter has been diabolical, after an initial profit of 14 PTS I'm now in the negative by 5 PTS, that's a 19 PTS loss in just under 2 months. Equine Investments, Form Bet, Football Investor, Pro Bandit and Neural Bets have all contributed to a poor couple of months... on the other hand we've had good performances from 4 Pronged Attack, Mr Gekko Bets, Skeeve, Strikeline and Geert Van Elsen.

The Linebacker service changed its name to SportsUSA a few months back. The american football picks were doing well but the ice hockey ones have been poor. I won't be following any more tips that aren't american football ones. I have decided I won't be continuing with the 22 Legs service once the trial runs out on Monday.

There's a lot of negatively charged particles in me at the moment, this is a business and I treat it like one, but it just isn't going forward at all. In fact, it has been steadily going backwards. Going backwards is unsustainable especially when there are costs and of course, I need to take a small salary, which I haven't done once yet. All profits have been reinvested.

My answer as always is to produce my own systems, then I'll only have myself to blame if things take a turn for the worse. Apologies for the negative words, but getting stuff off my chest is what the blog is all about. It has been a tough period both mentally and financially. If I come through this it'll only serve to make me a better person.

Until tomorrow

Friday 25 February 2011

Six 2nd placed horses and some staking conclusions

I think that was a record for the day, six 2nd placed horses. Form Bet was the unluckiest of the horse racing services with all three selections finishing in 2nd. I suppose that reinforces the need of having a portfolio, even with so many losses we've still managed to make a profit for the day.

Here are yesterday's and today's results:


Tipster: P/L Today: Stakes: ROI: Net Profit
4PA 0.00 0.00 N/A 108.00
BLB 0.00 0.00 N/A -3.16
BLIP 0.00 0.00 N/A 8.86
CL 0.00 0.00 N/A 36.41
CNB 0.00 0.00 N/A -1.47
EI -1.00 1.00 -100% 51.72
FB -5.00 5.00 -100% 10.67
FE 0.00 0.00 N/A 26.97
FI 0.00 0.00 N/A 25.48
GVE 0.93 1.00 93% 5.09
LB 0.00 0.00 N/A 3.02
MGB 1.37 1.00 137% 19.34
NB -0.70 8.00 -9% -22.65
NMP 1.00 1.75 57% -2.73
PB 1.92 2.08 92% 16.90
SK 0.00 0.00 N/A 49.59
SKS 0.00 0.00 N/A -3.03
STR 2.00 23.00 9% 76.00
TRAM 0.00 0.00 N/A -16.57
TRAS 0.00 0.00 N/A -1.61
WRT -0.50 1.30 -38% 7.01
AB 0.00 0.00 N/A -2.87
MB 0.00 0.00 N/A -1.90
22L -0.53 2.00 -27% -0.54
         
Active total: -0.51 46.13 11.44% 388.51
All-time total:   6847.36 4.34% 258.85

A stable couple of days, some services winning others not. 22 Legs isn't making much of an impression so probably won't be carrying on with their service once the trial ends, lots of ups and downs.

Staking:
My initial conclusions are these:
- High turnover services that have a low strike rate should have reduced staking
- High turnover services that have a high strike rate should have increased staking
- Low number of bets services doesn't necessarily mean that staking should be higher
- Higher number of bets services doesn't necessarily mean that staking should be lower
- High strike rate services should have increased staking
- Low strike rate services should have moderate staking
- Proven services should have greater than average staking
- Unproven services should start with low staking
- Staking should be increased gradually (obvious), either in tiers or percentages. I.e. Once 10 PTS profit has been reached increase staking from £20 to £25 pounds, once 20 PTS profit has been reached increase to £30 pounds....
- Staking should be reduced gradually as losses are made, in the same way that stakes are increased as profits are made

There may be some repeat information, all I need to do now is put into practice the above, finding out where I am with services right now and how best to go forward with each one.

I'll leave it at that, until tomorrow