Tuesday 15 February 2011

Time for change...

Some services will be coming out the portfolio, they are:
- HB - Herbie Fogg - 34 PTS loss - 3 months worth of results so far, that's enough for me, good luck to the service, I'm sure the bad results will be turned around very soon. My only regret is that I didn't jump ship a month ago.
- EWV - Each Way Value - 58 PTS loss - this service is simply not for me, will undoubtedly do well over the course of the year but the setup doesn't fit well with my day, and I'll need at least a year to claw back losses.

I haven't taken these decisions lightly, but I need to focus on two factors: what works for me and what I consider to be top quality services. Neural Bets is another service on the edge, at 26 PTS loss so far it's showing all the wrong signs, but as it's only the second month I'll let it run until the end of March or a 40 PT loss, whichever comes first. If performance improves it'll stay in the portfolio, if it doesn't it's out.

Here are the results from the past 4 days:


Tipster: P/L Today: Stakes: ROI: Net Profit
4PA -1.50 3.00 -50% 95.75
BLB -4.69 41.87 -11% 6.12
CL 0.10 2.00 5% 34.40
CNB -2.00 2.00 -100% -0.57
EI 8.15 3.75 217% 54.47
FB 7.75 18.00 43% 10.84
FE 2.36 2.00 118% 24.39
FES 0.00 0.00 N/A 3.94
FI -6.99 20.00 -35% 21.57
GVE 0.10 3.00 3% 4.23
LB 0.00 0.00 N/A 3.02
MGB -5.94 17.00 -35% 20.93
NB -0.50 18.00 -3% -26.28
NMP -4.81 6.00 -80% 1.52
PB -2.16 3.75 -57% 19.90
SK -2.88 16.00 -18% 48.13
SKS 0.00 0.00 N/A -2.88
STR 65.22 33.00 198% 88.00
TRAM 0.11 3.71 3% -16.03
TRAS 0.00 0.00 N/A -1.36
WRT 1.75 2.20 80% 8.35
AB 0.00 0.00 N/A -2.27
MB -4.00 4.00 -100% -3.00
22L -1.63 9.00 -18% 0.40
Active total: 56.54 159.41 8.38% 393.57
All-time total: 6500.28 5% 259.97

The Bettor Logic Bets took a pounding over the last few days, but it's to be expected. The probabilities involved give you an edge but they don't prevent losses. I remember one of the stats that came up over the weekend: Roma hadn't conceded first in 19 of their last 20 homr games, indicating a 95% chance of a winning bet... then Napoli went and scored first. As long as there are gradual winnings I'm not fussed.

You've probably seen the Strikeline winnings. I upped my stakes over the weekend so have made some extra profits. Equine Investments had a big winner coming in at 17.0, long overdue and I hope we don't give it all back. A service that has been really disappointing as of late is Northern Monkey Punter, at the end of December we were around the 14 PTS profit mark, now that has disappeared and we're standing at a profit of only 1.52 since subscribing.

I'm going to tell you about one of those moments that you need to let go of. Skeeve's Saturday bets all won, but I wasn't on any of them. For some reason the email got sucked into my Spam folder and as I was trading away in the afternoon I totally forgot about the email, by the time I realised and logged into my email account it was 4pm... so they won, but I didn't. This happened the other day too, with Northern Monkey Punter's emails but I realised just in time.


I'm currently doing that job description that I said I would do along with a business document that contains my mission statement, objectives, aims and a plan. This is so that I can stay focused and always look at ways in which I can improve myself as a trader and bettor. There is so much to learn, from May onwards my schedule will be changing thus giving me a lot more time to do all the research required to become a successful trader. Trading is all about probabilities, nothing more, and having the courage to ride the statistics out.

I could go on all night about the last 4 days but it would just be ranting about how well and not so well services have performed. My focus over the coming months will be to steadily decrease the number of services that I subscribe to, keeping the high quality ones.

Until tomorrow

6 comments:

  1. It's funny but I was just thinking about the extra services you'd taken on recently. The reason is that at the turn of the year I increased my portfolio by three services and the difference to my workload has been notable. It has got me thinking about dropping a couple - not necessarily because of poor performance but more based on the impact following them has had on my family life, especially at the weekends.

    By the way, may I be cheeky enough to ask for an addition to your blog list?...theportfolioinvestor.blogspot.com .

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  2. Some of the services I add on are ones that I'm testing, such as 22 Legs. I had to remove those two services from my portfolio, no business can sustain such losses. I'm just glad that I was staking fairly low for both of them.

    This month has been going poorly so far, really need to see some good performances from the big guns.

    I had added your blog a while ago, I'll see what happened.

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  3. Hi i'v bin following your blog for a while and find it interesting. I to recently join neurals bets and find it dissapointing at the moment but hav set aside 100pt bank and am willing to give it a fair go as i am with systematic bets and find that it is a very good service under mark littlewood who also deals with neaural bets with peter may.

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  4. Hi Kodagira,

    Many thanks for putting the link up.

    You're spot on re. the big guns; a few giants have been sleeping just a little too much recently.

    Tough start to the year and perhaps that's why I'm feeling the workload a bit.

    Onwards and upwards...

    TPI

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  5. Hi Kodagira

    I have just found your blog from a link on the TPI blog. I see you have stopped one eachway betting service.

    You may be interested to take a look at the free daily eachway tips that I put up on my blog(between 11:00am & 12:30). I have no plans to charge a subscription to my tips, I may add a buy me drink buttton at some stage though.

    Just because my tips are free do not underestimate their value because I can assure you they will be profitable over the long term.

    Anyway, I have become a reader of your blog and I have added a link to it from my blog so that I can follow your progress. I was wondering if you consider adding a link to my blog in your blog links. The address is:

    http://patientspeculation.blogspot.com

    Wishing you good luck
    Mark

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  6. TPI - one big gun fired yesterday, 4 Pronged Attack with their ante-post selection. Nice surprise seeing my bookie account with an extra £1000 in it, I'd only gone and forgot about the ante-post selection. lol

    Hi Mark,

    I got a free drink the other day after winning the man of the match in a 5 a side... lol. Good idea! I'll gladly follow your picks, but will paper trade them to begin with.

    Many thanks, and I've added your blog!

    ReplyDelete