There is a limit to everything gambling that we do: the winnings the bookies will let us make, the number of pseudo accounts we can use, the amount we can win on Betfair without having to pay the Premium Charge, amongst other obstacles we are presented with. Yes, I like the challenge, all businesses face challenges. Firstly, I must learn to walk before I run, by that I mean that I must get everything gambling as best organised as possible. Then of course comes the trading and although it hasn't been the best of starts it has stabilised and from May onwards I'll be able to dedicate the time it deserves.
I have found a couple of niches but I am trading them randomly, not all the time. This inevitably means returns can be inconsistent as I may inadvertently select more losers than winners or even more winners than losers when I'm lucky. I don't want to be lucky, I just want to have an edge in the long-run, nothing else. Again, from May onwards I'm hoping this all changes, on paper it should. One such edge I'm happy to share is laying teams that have gone 1-0 up whilst placing a saver bet on the 1-0 itself. I look for strong home trends usually against top half teams missing out the Big Teams, such as the Big Two in Spain; Barcelona and Real Madrid. The Big Teams tend to have their own weather patterns that I like to keep away from.
I have recently opened a spread betting account with DEPOSIT only, why would I want credit? I ain't crazy. I'll be using it in conjuction with my trading and am initially looking at the under/over goals and corners markets. Of course, staking will be very low working with a betting bank and realistic staking method.
Conclusion: use tipsters forever if possible, but continue to search for other niches to become as self-dependent as possible. My aims and objectives are stated in my business document that I produced recently.
Here are yesterday's results:
| Tipster: | P/L Today: | Stakes: | ROI: | Net Profit |
| 4PA | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A | 108.00 |
| BLB | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A | -3.16 |
| BLIP | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A | 8.86 |
| CL | -1.00 | 3.00 | -33% | 36.41 |
| CNB | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A | -1.47 |
| EI | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A | 52.72 |
| FB | -2.00 | 2.00 | -100% | 15.67 |
| FE | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A | 26.97 |
| FI | 4.06 | 1.00 | 406% | 25.48 |
| GVE | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A | 4.16 |
| LB | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A | 3.02 |
| MGB | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A | 17.97 |
| NB | 5.11 | 4.00 | 128% | -21.95 |
| NMP | -2.00 | 2.00 | -100% | -3.73 |
| PB | 0.19 | 2.25 | 8% | 14.98 |
| SK | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A | 49.59 |
| SKS | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A | -3.03 |
| STR | -4.00 | 4.00 | -100% | 74.00 |
| TRAM | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A | -16.57 |
| TRAS | 0.19 | 0.19 | 100% | -1.61 |
| WRT | 2.16 | 1.10 | 196% | 7.50 |
| AB | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A | -2.87 |
| MB | 2.60 | 3.00 | 87% | -1.90 |
| 22L | -1.00 | 1.00 | -100% | -0.01 |
| Active total: | 5.30 | 20.54 | 44.68% | 389.02 |
| All-time total: | 6764.48 | 4% | 259.36 |
My Bets came up with a nice winner and it was such an obvious one, the under 1.5 goals market on the Marseille v Man U game. The reason I say it was obvious is because the stats pointed to it. A good day for Neural Bets and Football Investor with St Mirren winning at Motherwell.
I was going to talk about staking, again, it'll have to be for the next post.
Until tomorrow
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