Putting everything into perpective...

This month has been so hard to make any profits, feels like I'm swimming against the currents at the moment. When one service does well another has a bad day and it has been like that for the last 10 days:

There's nothing I can do of course, but there are three services that really need to sort their performances out: Each Way value, Herbie Fogg and Neural Bets. Being more than 20 PTS into the red is simply not acceptable. I don't really want to jump ship right now as they're all due some winnings.

So, putting things into perspective... We were on a 4.33 (10/3) shot today with Equine Investments. That implies that there's only a 23% chance of the horse winning. Ok, 23% tells me that for those odds the selection today should win roughly once in every four races. I stake more on EI selections because they are good selections, by that I mean EI are good at finding value in the market. So why am I annoyed that we didn't win today? Firstly, because it didn't win. Then there is the fact that EI hasn't performed since the beginning of the season so I'm always expecting winners to compensate for the past, bad idea. The past is the past and does in no way mean the future will be any better... so should I be more pessimistic? Of course not, but I should treat it as a normality and then make rational decisions once subscription is up for renewal. EI used to go for a lot of outsiders, it seems that has changed, and it worries me a bit when even the shorter priced selections aren't coming in. The service has made a rod for its own back, it has consistently produced big profits and this season it hasn't, so that brings an air of disappointment, but it shouldn't. One thing I've learnt from trading is that every moment is unique and that must be taken into consideration, that moment can go for or against your selections and there is absolutely nothing you can do about it, apart from getting on with things and maintaining your focus. So that's what I've learnt for today, a 4.33 selection won't always win, it should only win 23% of the time, the other 77% it will be losing....

Here are yesterday's and today's results:

Tipster:	P/L Today:	Stakes:	ROI:	Net Profit
4PA	0.00	0.00	N/A	97.75
BLB	0.00	0.00	N/A	14.66
CL	0.00	0.00	N/A	34.30
CNB	0.00	0.00	N/A	1.43
EI	1.25	2.50	50%	46.32
EWV	-1.00	1.00	-100%	-57.66
FB	2.99	8.00	37%	-1.39
FE	0.00	0.00	N/A	22.03
FES	0.00	0.00	N/A	3.94
FI	0.00	0.00	N/A	26.69
MGB	0.00	0.00	N/A	25.00
NB	-0.50	5.00	-10%	-21.78
NMP	1.00	3.00	33%	7.33
PB	-0.54	3.50	-16%	21.15
SK	0.00	0.00	N/A	51.01
SKS	0.00	0.00	N/A	-2.88
TRAM	0.00	0.00	N/A	-16.13
TRAS	0.00	0.00	N/A	-1.58
WRT	-0.56	1.80	-31%	6.60
AB	0.00	0.00	N/A	-2.27
MB	0.00	0.00	N/A	1.00
SPDT	0.00	0.00	N/A	-0.23
22L	0.00	0.00	N/A	0.34
GVE	0.00	0.00	N/A	5.13
HF	-1.50	1.50	-100%	-27.88
HRM	0.00	0.00	N/A	-6.28
LB	0.00	0.00	N/A	3.02
STR	24.78	15.00	165%	9.28
Total	25.91	41.30	3.24%	238.89

Not a bad couple of days, I've already mentioned the services that I'm losing a lot of money with so won't go into any more details. Strikeline is proving to be a valid addition and one that I've very likely to continue following once the initial month's trialling period is up for renewal.


I was reading a blog a couple of days ago about how everything had been going very well, trading wise. Then over a short period of time things started to go downhill, and they carried on going downhill until the trader had no money left. Subscribers such as myself are very susceptible to how tipster services perform, if they don't perform then we suffer. Therefore I'm telling anyone who is reading this not to over leverage, by that I mean only use money you can afford to lose and make sure your betting banks are correctly setup. It only needs a month of bad results to get crippled financially, and the challenge will be over, no money. I have been to the brink and back several times so know from experience how difficult psychologically it can all get, be careful and be aware.

I'll leave it at that, until tomorrow