- Total subscription costs are ridiculously high.
- Stakes are too high in order to cover subscription costs and make a profit.
- Risk therefore is much too high.
- Portfolio needs to be made up of systems that have made profits over the course of years and not one year.
| Tipster: | Todays P/L: | Stakes: | ROI: | POINTS Total: |
| 4PA | -2.62 | 4.50 | -58% | 101.76 |
| BLB | -0.73 | 9.00 | -8% | -0.99 |
| BLIP | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A | 4.42 |
| CL | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A | 43.72 |
| CNB | 0.00 | 2.00 | N/A | 1.58 |
| EI | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A | 62.02 |
| FB | 3.00 | 10.00 | 30% | -0.08 |
| FE | -1.00 | 1.00 | -100% | 18.81 |
| FI | 0.80 | 14.00 | 6% | 29.41 |
| GVE | -2.00 | 2.00 | -100% | 3.58 |
| LB | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A | 2.02 |
| MGB | 0.60 | 7.00 | 9% | 20.06 |
| NMP | -0.93 | 2.75 | -34% | -4.24 |
| PB | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A | 18.47 |
| SK | -6.00 | 6.00 | -100% | 64.81 |
| SKS | -1.00 | 1.00 | -100% | -3.06 |
| STR | 7.25 | 6.00 | 121% | 0.50 |
| WRT | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A | 6.91 |
| AB | -0.20 | 0.20 | -100% | 0.87 |
| MB | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A | -8.96 |
| TRAM | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A | -14.39 |
| TRAS | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A | -1.61 |
| WIFLI | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A | -1.50 |
| Today: | -2.82 | 65.45 | -36.24% | |
| Active Tipsters Total: | 344.11 | |||
| All Tipsters Total: | 9055.30 | 1.97% | 17.70 | |
| Financial Totals: | This month: | -£3,657.19 | ||
| This year: | -£1,561.28 |
The regular shit happened today: horses finishing in 2nd and 3rd. But, there were 10 football teams that were winning for the services that I follow and you know what happened? Instead of a £3k profit I ended up £800 in the red, and I can't continue to sustain such losses financially or psychologically. I don't want to make rash decisions, it's not in my nature, but I do want this to work and I'm not one to shy away from making tough decisions.
Tomorrow you won't be seeing the following services:
- Geert Van Elsen - 3 losses this weekend, all from winning positions initially - not tipster's fault, but some shoddy leagues we're betting in. Cost also fairly high.
- Conference North Bets - poor season performance, today we broke even. Would have finished at the end of the season anyway.
- Lineback (SportsUSA) - prefer to use the capital elsewhere to be honest. However, has been doing well recently.
- Northern Monkey Punter - poor couple of months, am sure they will turn it around but nowhere near covering subscription costs at the moment.
- Pro Bandit - again, am sure they'll turn it around but fed up with backing several front runners only to get beat by the one we weren't backing. Also, NQs have been performing badly and there has been no communication from the service as to whether to continue with them or not.
- Winning Racing Tips - in reality need to be staking high amounts, preferably £100 per point and I would prefer to be putting the capital elsewhere.
- Skeeve - Sat. - this was always going to be a risky service and it hasn't worked out. Would have finished at the end of the season anyway but working to low odds, around evens, results should have been better.
There are some services I shall be looking at when the football season's over, most notably Football Elite and Mr Gekko Bets.
The idea is to have a portfolio of high quality proven tipsters rather than ones that "may" have been a little lucky during their first year's proofing. As I've said already I believe that value
Placing less bets should theoretically mean I've got more time for other stuff, mainly trading which will now take centre stage. Betting is fine if you have an immense financial bank and don't need to pay subscription fees, otherwise it's very very difficult. It's time to focus on making my own money, it won't be easy but I'm in this for the long-run! And there's nothing more satisfying than winning money from your own hard work.
In summary:
- 7 tipsters out of the portfolio.
- Higher concentration of long-term profitable services.
- Greater focus on trading.
Apologies if I've been negative lately, I'm sure you understand how tough this business is.
Koda
good luck with your changes mate. A break even or small profit will be a result this year. EI returning to previous years form would be a huge boost to your bottom line.
ReplyDeleteI couldnt agree more with your point about high subs hugely increasing risk.
wouldnt it be great to have EI,systematic, bluesky,personalInfo, Centaur etc subs free!! It would kinda change the dynamics somewhat.
Best of luck mate
Refreshing honesty, be interested to hear how the trading goes for you.
ReplyDeleteHi Alan,
ReplyDeleteI have been thinking recently about the long-term and I believe the position I have inevitably arrived at hasn't come about for any reason. Thinking logically it was always going to be difficult making real profits after having to pay subscription. Moreover, it is only natural for services to underperform and we need to be ready for such occasions. I'm not trying to be pessimistic but rather realistic, the fact is that if you're a paying subscriber using tipsters alone the chance of you making substantial profits over 3-5 years is quite low.
That is why I've decided to become more proactive, looking for my own niches. All money can be reinvested now and I know where my value is.
Thanks for the support
Koda
Hi Average Guy,
ReplyDeleteTo be honest it's going better than I expected. When you put your head down and get some real data into a spreadsheet it's surprising the number of opportunities that pop up. I'm keeping it all fairly simple to begin with then will bring different factors affecting the events together to see whether I can find value from a different angle.
I provide some Italian trades on the Centaur Academy forum. To date they are just over 3 PTS in profit. When I started putting the trades up I would just go for what I fancied but now I'm seeing through the mist and opportunities are becomming a lot clearer to see. It's down to experience and putting the time in, seeing where you went wrong and no fear of trading what the masses would consider a "stupid" trade.
I expect to roll out at least 5 trading systems for the next football season, fingers crossed.
Koda
you saved yourself some money by leaving pro bandit loser yesterday and awful day today four losers not even each money saved.
ReplyDeleteHi Anonymous,
ReplyDeleteAs I'm still getting PB's picks through I'm keeping an eye on their performance. It's only a couple of days but it appears I'm saving myself a lot of cash as it was one of my highest staking services. It's one of those services where you expect a high strike rate and when you don't get the winners it's really frustrating. Even if they do pick up I'm happy it's out of my portfolio; I've covered subscription costs and made a tidy profit. Time to move on.